Aniline Market bottom soon to stability

Website： cn.jscztyhg.com   Release Time: 2014-12-18

Since October, domestic aniline market continued the July downturn market, continue to shocks bottom. As of November 27th, domestic mainstream clinch a deal the price fell to 8000 yuan (ton price, the same below), the low-end price already fell to 7800~7900 yuan, two months of deep down more than 11%, a record low of 4 years. The losses of the enterprise to continue to expand, resulting in many enterprises in production or semi production, some enterprises even plans to shut down production. From the market in line to understand, by the recent raw material benzene to stabilize stabilized, the enterprise to the limit load, the situation is expected to impact the downstream procurement reverse three big factors, and the promotion of interest policy advantage good, aniline afternoon will usher in the bottom of the opportunity to stability.
According to industry analysis, this round of price decline due to weak demand in the downstream, upstream raw material to suppress, but also by the impact of domestic environmental protection cause downstream non normal production and macro economic surface and weak, can not fully reflect the laws of market development. It is understood, due to the current sales into a loss, local enterprises sell psychological enhancement, the beginning of the implementation of reducing negative insured strategies to deal with the current predicament.
The market outlook will have the following favorable factors:
-- benzene to stabilize stabilized formed the basis of support
According to market feedback information shows that, as of November 27th the domestic benzene (mainly refers to the petroleum benzene) mainstream price in 7000 ~ 7100 yuan, a disc stabilized signs. Most of the middlemen and downstream manufacturers fear that existing stocks are low, once encounter market turnover will cause the fill bank fail. According to industry analysis, the current oil price of hydrogenation of benzene and benzene are relatively large (700 ~ 900 yuan) effect, rapid rebound is unlikely petroleum benzene, but again deep down space has been limited, stabilize shocks will become the mainstream trend. Therefore, in the current inventory of benzene aniline enterprises generally low background, once pure bottomed rebound, the market is closely related to the trend of the aniline benzene will form the basis for support, does not rule out the possibility of follow up.
-- purchasing situation reversed to demand support
It is understood, aniline fell to the current price, Shandong Yantai Wanhua production MDI enterprises supporting aniline device produces has not purchased bargain. These enterprises in November after the overhaul period is expected to be a large number of foreign procurement warehousing, enterprises must form purchasing highlights, injection warmer power for aniline Market under low load and low price. In addition, in November all over the domestic downstream enterprises caused by the transformation of environmental protection facilities for non normal parking will also come to an end. The terminal demand still exists, dyes, additives, pharmaceutical, pesticide and other enterprises will also be launched one after another, the purchase amount returned to normal. At the same time, aniline downstream reactive dye is still in the recovery period of growth, and exports increased slightly, are the current downturn in the market provides a good support demand.
-- enterprise low limit load
According to incomplete statistics, the current domestic aniline enterprise comprehensive operating rate has dropped to 4 year low, maintained at about 30%, reach the production load of low limit. According to several Hebei, Jiangsu aniline enterprises reflect, calculated in accordance with the sales price of 8000 yuan at present, combined with the pure benzene prices, enterprises have already entered the loss. No downstream products supporting the aniline sales enterprises have been facing greater cost pressures, which is one of the reasons why some enterprises converting production plan. Producers said, consider from the cost accounting, each set of equipment operating rate dropped to below 40%, the possibility of corporate profits is very small. Therefore, at present the enterprise construction based on the current situation, the market price of the space is not large also fell again. According to relevant data, nearly 3 months of price decline in more than more than benzene aniline or 5%, advance deep down big drop load leads to enterprise also provides support for the market.
Cut interest rates -- good commodity market
In addition, the central bank suddenly announced to cut interest rates in November 21st Chinese, favorable commodity market. Notice that since November 22nd, the financial institutions a one-year benchmark deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%, one-year benchmark lending rate by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6%, this is since 2012 July the central bank cut interest rates for the first time, caused the commodity currencies and commodity prices. The central bank also said, Chinese has basically possessed the basic conditions of market-oriented interest rate reform will further push forward. China for businesses and individuals will be timely through ways of issuing certificates of deposit, the deposit interest rate of the market to promote the orderly. Market analysts have pointed out, the financial loose and investment incentive policy introduced, will help the enterprise financing and expand the export of commodities. Another basis for the introduction of good policies are also stable aniline shortly after the market, the industry is expected to usher in a new opportunity to the bottom to stability.